Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $33,182$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,633.2}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(33,633.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,736$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(46.3 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,158.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 63.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,158.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,013$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $92,273$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{130,939.9}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.3)}}\) (asimptote \(130,939.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,648$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(63.7 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,718.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 50.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,718.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $61,004$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $241,080$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(4.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{621,682.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.6)}}\) (asimptote \(621,682.9\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $16,118$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(365 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,717.7}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 55.9)}}\) (asimptote \(30,717.7\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $130,840$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $43,781$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(964 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $450$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(30.5 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{522.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(522.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,118$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,088$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(49.7 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,861.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 72.6)}}\) (asimptote \(14,861.5\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $169$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(9.05 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{892.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 70.0)}}\) (asimptote \(892.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,426$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $15,574$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(550 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,332.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 74.9)}}\) (asimptote \(48,332.7\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $574$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(46 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{751.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(751.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,249$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,068$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(618 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,505.2}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 55.8)}}\) (asimptote \(12,505.2\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $373$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(39.5 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{448.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(448.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,126$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $734$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(204 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{705.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 22.6)}}\) (asimptote \(705.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $20$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(4.78 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20.7}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 22.2)}}\) (asimptote \(20.7\))
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $150$ on 2020-05-17
